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Scenario Planning in Action

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Below are summaries of the key points in the overview page:

What is scenario planning?
Generating insights by creating a small set of scenarios for an organization’s future environment that are:

– Relevant to critical business decisions
– Distinct
– Individually realistic and believable
– Together cover the breadth of relevant uncertainties

Why scenario planning?
– The pace of technological and social change is increasing
– Industry structures are rapidly shifting
– Strategy must take uncertainty into account
– Responsiveness to change is vital for success
– The future is increasingly uncertain

Possible objectives for scenario planning
– Foster useful strategic conversations among key executives and managers
– Enhance responsiveness to emerging challenges and opportunities
– Generate and assess innovative strategies and options
– Align strategic planning activities across the organization
– Build deep understanding of business environment drivers
– Communicate strategic perspectives across the organization and beyond
– Create the future

Success factors for scenario planning
– Getting the right question and scope
– Broad and meaningful involvement throughout the process
– Balance between plausibility and stretching thinking
– Bringing in external perspectives
– Creating compelling stories
– Focus on effective communication of the scenarios

Below are summaries of the key points in the example process:

DEFINE
– Prioritize objectives
– Decide focal issues
– Set time horizon
– Define scope
– Name core and extended scenario teams

EXPLORE
– Provoke new thinking
– Brainstorm spectrum of issues
– Identify vital driving forces
– Research key themes
– Distinguish certainties and uncertainties
– Test preliminary scenario frameworks

CREATE
– Establish scenario framework
– Build scenario logics
– Generative compelling narratives
– Ensure internal consistency

COMMUNICATE
– Create scenario documents and outputs
– Enable people to experience the scenarios
– Generate discussion of implications

ACT
– Test current strategies
– Generate strategic options
– Define a core strategy robust against scenarios
– Establish contingent strategies

EMBED
– Establish ongoing strategic conversations
– Build systems to monitor weak signals
– Build responsiveness to change